Official NOAA trajectory graphics show forecast positioning of the oil slick for Wednesday, May 12. Graphic courtesy NOAA.

Official NOAA trajectory graphics show forecast positioning of the oil slick for Thursday, May 13. Graphic courtesy NOAA.

Graphic shows the eastern Gulf of Mexico with the approximate location of the Transocean/BP oil accident site and the approximate location of the Gulf Loop Current and the Florida Keys. Base graphic courtesy oilspill.fsu.edu.

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May 11, 2010

Officials at the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, the U.S. Coast Guard and Monroe County Emergency Management continue to monitor developments at the site of the Transocean/BP Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent oil leaks in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The Florida Keys are not within the projected impact area in official near-term forecast models.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration models, prepared through Thursday, show the oil slick still positioned to the north of the Gulf’s Loop Current.

As of Tuesday morning, the southern edge of the slick was projected to be about 100 miles to the north of the loop current and that distance is projected to increase.

The Gulf Loop Current is a clockwise current that carries water from the Yucatan Channel north into the Gulf of Mexico, then back down south off Florida’s west coast, past the Dry Tortugas and intersecting into the Gulf Stream.

In the Transocean/BP spill, the current plays a crucial role because of concerns if oil gets into the Loop Current, it could be swept to the south, possibly into or around the Keys and possibly carried by the Gulf Stream to other areas of Florida and the U.S. east coast.

If oil enters the current, the travel time for it to get to the Dry Tortugas vicinity should be about four days. The Tortugas begin about 70 miles to the west of Key West.

But on the Sunday edition of CBS’s “Face the Nation,” U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said officials currently think there is a low probability the oil will reach the Loop Current.

“That (Loop Current) is significantly south of the southern edge of the spill right now,” said Allen, who is in charge of the government’s involvement in the disaster. “It does not appear to be a threat right now.”

Currently, there are no advisories recommending against travel to the Florida Keys or any other precautions advising not to engage in fishing, diving, swimming or other water sports. Florida Keys-waters seafood is safe to eat.

Federal, state and local environmental and emergency management agencies have met several times to review mitigation strategies if a response to an oil threat is required for the Keys.

But likelihood, timing, location or extent of impacts, if any, is impossible to accurately project at this time. All threats to the Keys will likely cease once the oil leaks, 5,000 feet on the bottom of the sea, are plugged.

Additional details on efforts to mitigate the incident are on these official Web sites:

deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
noaa.gov
epa.gov/bpspill

More than 40 web cams streaming live video from the Keys’ waters, shorelines and area attractions are also available for the public to view.